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    刘宁, 陈昱颋, 虞慧群, 范贵生. 基于Elman神经网络的交通流量预测方法[J]. 华东理工大学学报(自然科学版), 2011, (2): 204-209.
    引用本文: 刘宁, 陈昱颋, 虞慧群, 范贵生. 基于Elman神经网络的交通流量预测方法[J]. 华东理工大学学报(自然科学版), 2011, (2): 204-209.
    LIU Ning, CHEN Yu-ting, YU Hui-qun, FAN Gui-sheng. Traffic Flow Forecasting Method Based on Elman Neural Network[J]. Journal of East China University of Science and Technology, 2011, (2): 204-209.
    Citation: LIU Ning, CHEN Yu-ting, YU Hui-qun, FAN Gui-sheng. Traffic Flow Forecasting Method Based on Elman Neural Network[J]. Journal of East China University of Science and Technology, 2011, (2): 204-209.

    基于Elman神经网络的交通流量预测方法

    Traffic Flow Forecasting Method Based on Elman Neural Network

    • 摘要: 交通流诱导系统是智能交通系统领域中一项重要的研究内容,而交通流量的预测问题则是交通流诱导系统的核心问题。因此,能够实时准确地预测交通流量成为诱导系统是否能够有效实现的关键问题。根据交通流的特性,分析交通数据采集过程中错误数据产生的原因,提出相应的处理方法,并在此基础上采用Elman神经网络对智能交通系统的流量预测进行建模。该系统采用C#并结合Matlab进行开发,通过Elman神经网络算法实现流量的预测,并采用图表的方式直观地显示预测结果。应用结果表明:该方法可以有效地对交通流量进行预测,且预测精度可以满足实际交通诱导的需要。

       

      Abstract: Traffic flow guidance system (TFGS) plays an important role in intelligent transportation system (ITS). The prediction of traffic flow is the core issue of TFGS. Hence, how to predict traffic flow amount online is the key to TFGS. Based on the properties of traffic flows, this paper analyzes the causes resulting in error ones during collecting transportation data, and proposes the methods of handling these errors. Furthermore, the Elman neural network is utilized to model the forecast of the traffic flow for ITS. The above system is built by using C# and Matlab, and the Elman neural network is used to forecast the traffic flow. Moreover, the predicted results are intuitively shown by using the chart. The application results show that the proposed method is effective for the prediction of traffic flow and the prediction accuracy can meet the actual requirements.

       

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