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    融合时序卷积网络与傅里叶分解的时序预测模型

    Time Series Prediction Model Combining Temporal Convolutional Network and Fourier Decomposition

    • 摘要: 针对时间序列预测任务中,复杂的非线性模型计算复杂度高且对噪声敏感的问题,提出了一种结合线性模型、傅里叶分解和时序卷积网络(TCN)的新型预测模型。线性模型因其在趋势建模中的简单高效被采用,展现了不逊于复杂模型的表现;傅里叶分解则利用其在时间序列领域提取趋势和季节性成分的优势,精准捕捉周期性模式;TCN 通过因果卷积和膨胀卷积高效建模长依赖,具备并行计算能力,优于 Transformer 等模型的计算效率。此外,本研究提出了一种自适应动态加权损失函数,结合 MSE 和 MAE,通过动态加权策略平衡预测精度与稳定性。实验在多个基准数据集上验证了模型性能,覆盖多变量预测单变量、单变量预测单变量和多变量预测多变量三种模式,结果表明该模型在不同预测长度下均优于当前最先进方法,展现了其优越性和泛化能力。

       

      Abstract: Addressing the challenges of high computational complexity and sensitivity to noise in complex nonlinear models for time series forecasting tasks, this paper proposes a novel forecasting model combining linear models, Fourier decomposition, and a Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN). The linear model is employed for its simplicity and efficiency in trend modeling, demonstrating performance comparable to more complex models; Fourier decomposition leverages its advantages in extracting trend and seasonal components from time series data to accurately capture periodic patterns; and the TCN efficiently models long-term dependencies through causal and dilated convolutions, possessing parallel computing capabilities superior to models like Transformer. Furthermore, this study proposes an adaptive dynamic weighted loss function, combining MSE and MAE, to balance prediction accuracy and stability through a dynamic weighting strategy. Experiments on multiple benchmark datasets, covering multivariate-to-univariate, univariate-to-univariate, and multivariate-to-multivariate forecasting scenarios, validate the model's performance. The results show that the model outperforms current state-of-the-art methods across different prediction lengths, demonstrating its superiority and generalization ability.

       

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