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    融合时序卷积网络与傅里叶分解的时序预测模型

    Time Series Prediction Model Combining Temporal Convolutional Network and Fourier Decomposition

    • 摘要: 针对时间序列预测任务中复杂非线性模型计算复杂度高且对噪声敏感的问题,本文提出了一种融合傅里叶分解与时序卷积网络(Temporal Convolutional Network, TCN)的 FDTCNLinear 模型。该方法先利用傅里叶变换分离时序信号的长期趋势与季节周期项;随后采用线性层高效外推长期趋势,并通过多尺度 TCN 挖掘季节项的长短期依赖。此外,设计了一种自适应动态加权混合损失函数(Dynamic Weighted Hybrid Loss, DWHL)结合MSE与MAE动态调整权重以降低异常值干扰。在多个公开基准数据集上开展的实验表明,涵盖多变量与单变量预测等多种模式下,所提模型在不同预测长度下的精度均显著优于当前Transformer类模型与线性基线方法。本文模型在降低模型计算复杂度的同时有效克服了噪声影响,展现出卓越的鲁棒性与泛化能力,为实际应用场景下的长时序分析提供了高效稳健的新途径。

       

      Abstract: Addressing the challenges of high computational complexity and sensitivity to noise in complex nonlinear models for time series forecasting tasks, this paper proposes a novel forecasting model combining linear models, Fourier decomposition, and a Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN). The linear model is employed for its simplicity and efficiency in trend modeling, demonstrating performance comparable to more complex models; Fourier decomposition leverages its advantages in extracting trend and seasonal components from time series data to accurately capture periodic patterns; and the TCN efficiently models long-term dependencies through causal and dilated convolutions, possessing parallel computing capabilities superior to models like Transformer. Furthermore, this study proposes an adaptive dynamic weighted loss function, combining MSE and MAE, to balance prediction accuracy and stability through a dynamic weighting strategy. Experiments on multiple benchmark datasets, covering multivariate-to-univariate, univariate-to-univariate, and multivariate-to-multivariate forecasting scenarios, validate the model's performance. The results show that the model outperforms current state-of-the-art methods across different prediction lengths, demonstrating its superiority and generalization ability.

       

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