Abstract: Moisture content in cut tobacco is a critical factor influencing cigarette production efficiency, product qualification rate, and smoking quality. To meet the urgent need for accurate prediction of environmental temperature and humidity to achieving moisture control of cut tobacco during actual production, two types of mathematical models were developed for the equilibrium moisture content (EMC) of six tobacco shreds. The first type is typical isothermal adsorption models with water activity as the independent variable under constant temperature, while the second type is equilibrium moisture content/equilibrium relative humidity (EMC/ERH) models incorporating both temperature and humidity. Based on the coefficient of determination (R²) and root mean square error (RMSE), the DLP model and the Modified Oswin model exhibit superior fitting accuracy among the two types of models, respectively. The results demonstrated that the Modified Oswin model achieved high accuracy in predicting the moisture content of the six types of cut tobacco, with R² > 0.99 and RMSE < 0.3%. Furthermore, the influence of parameters such as pore structure and sugar content on the prediction accuracy was further analyzed. The results revealed that cut tobacco with a higher proportion of large pores (> 7.5 μm), such as expanded tobacco stems and reconstituted tobacco cut, primarily retains moisture as free water, leading to greater fluctuation in hygroscopicity. As for cut rag and expanded cut tobacco, the relatively high content of reducing sugars is conducive to the formation of bound water, thereby enhancing their moisture retention capacity. This study provides practical guidance for setting temperature and humidity parameters during cut tobacco production and storage, and offers a theoretical basis for seasonal adjustment of environmental conditions in production workshops to reduce energy consumption while maintaining desired moisture levels.