Abstract: Moisture content in cut tobacco is a critical factor influencing cigarette production efficiency, product qualification rate, and smoking quality. To achieve stable control of tobacco moisture content during production, accurate prediction of ambient temperature and humidity is urgently required. Typical isothermal moisture absorption models with water activity as the independent variable at constant temperature, as well as equilibrium moisture content/equilibrium relative humidity models involving both temperature and humidity variables, were established for the equilibrium moisture content of cut leaf tobacco, expanded cut tobacco, cut sheet tobacco and expanded cut stem tobacco, respectively. By evaluating the coefficient of determination (R²) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), the Double Logarithm Polynomial (DLP) model and the Modify Oswin model were confirmed to exhibit satisfactory fitting accuracy, among which the Modify Oswin model achieved R² > 0.99 and RMSE < 0.3%. Through analyzing the pore structure and sugar components of different cut tobacco types, it was found that expanded cut stem tobacco and cut sheet tobacco have a high proportion of mesopores and macropores (>7.5 μm), with moisture mainly existing as free water, resulting in significant fluctuations in hygroscopicity. In contrast, cut leaf tobacco and expanded cut tobacco possess a higher mass fraction of reducing sugars, which tend to form bound water and present strong water retention capacity. The results provide guidance for setting temperature and humidity parameters in the production and storage of cut tobacco in manufacturing workshops.