Application of Innovation Grey Theory to Fault Predication of Uncertainty Systems

Structural complexity,uniqueness of operating environments and multi-source of the failure greatly increase the uncertainties of modern equipment system.These uncertainties further result in the less data,which reflect main dynamic characteristic of system.Innovation Grey Prediction Model(IGPM) can get better model by updating data in time.For poor information of uncertainty equipment systems,IGPM is applied to prediction of equipment operation.The modeling procedure of emulation based on FIGPM is presented,and the prediction result is compared with BP neural networks.It is proved that IGPM has good practicability and validity.