计划评审方法中项目工期估计的一种方法

A Method for Estimating Project Duration in Program Evaluation and Review Technique

摘要: 以期Ｍ超过指定工期ｔ的期望值Ｅ（Ｍ－ｔ）＾＋，作为估计工程在指定工期ｔ内完工的可能性的指标。给出了估计Ｅ（Ｍ－ｔ）＾＋的公式，并转化为求解一个线性规划问题。该方法不需要对各工作延续时间的分布作出假定，因此具有广泛的实用性。

Abstract: A expectating difference between the pratical duzation and the planning dura-tion will be introduced as a criterion of the possibility to complete the project in planning duration.It will be transfered a liner pragranuning problem. This is a very simple and useful method in practice because it is not necessary to asunune a distribution of the project duration.